It is highly likely that New Brunswick MP Dominic LeBlanc will pull out of the race for the Liberal leadership tomorrow and will throw his support behind Michael Ignatieff. That will leave only Ignatieff and Bob Rae as contenders.
Pressure is building within the party to force Stephane Dion to resign as Liberal leader as early as Wednesday when the party caucus meets.
Both the Ignatieff and Rae camps want Dion to exit the leadership quickly. But they have very different ideas about how the new leader should be picked. The Ignatieff forces are pushing to have the National Executive and the Parliamentary caucus (MPs and Senators) choose an interim leader as soon as Dion is out the door. Then the final decision would be made at the Liberal convention next May. The Rae supporters are well aware that Ignatieff would be sure to win a quick vote by the National Executive and the Parliamentary Caucus, and that the convention choice would then be reduced to a formality. What they want is a speeded up process whereby every member of the Liberal Party could cast a vote online or by phone sometime in the next few weeks. That way, it is believed, Rae would stand a chance.
Supporters of the Liberal-NDP coalition as a government-in-waiting, have a very real interest in the outcome of the power struggle in the Liberal Party.
Bob Rae is now on a cross country tour promoting the coalition. In interviews this weekend, he has made it clear that he is not prepared to make any sort of deal with Stephen Harper. The Conservative leader has lost his confidence as a member of parliament, Rae declared, and that’s not going to change. Liberals who want to continue the head-on fight against the Harper government have a champion in Bob Rae.
Michael Ignatieff’s view of things is very different. On Sunday, he described his position as “coalition if necessary, but not necessarily coalition.” (The formulation is a paraphrase of Liberal Prime Minister William Lyon Mackenzie King’s declaration during the Second World War that his position on how to meet the nation’s military manpower needs was “conscription if necessary, but not necessarily conscription.”)
Ignatieff is lukewarm about the coalition. He would like to be able to point to its existence as a way to pressure Harper into proposing a Budget he could support. Then, if he chose, he could dump the coalition. Ignatieff would like to be able to turn the NDP and the Bloc on or off like a tap, as it suits him tactically.
If Ignatieff wins, the character of the coalition will alter dramatically, with the NDP and the Bloc reduced to waiting for a call that may never come.
There is a very real danger that Ignatieff is being too clever by half---a failing of his at many points over the course of his career both before and since entering politics. His tactic will invite Jack Layton and especially Gilles Duceppe to reconsider their positions. They may not appreciate being told that by Ignatieff that “they also serve who only stand and wait.”
Ignatieff’s slippery view of the coalition could end by reminding people of what they like least about the Liberal Party---its tendency toward opportunism at the expense of principle.
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I don't think the NDP will wait for Ignatieff. The coalition idea is over in my opinion. I think the Liberals under Iggy will support the Conservative budget. Even if they don't, the NDP would could be prepared for a snap election.
Well said Mr. Laxer. I have been saying something similar for the last 48 hours on numerous blogs.
Perhaps the coalition train has already left the station but that is a real shame for the majority of Canadians who never voted to give Harper's party a majority in government.
The LPC under Ignatieff will probably prop the CPC up until they feel they have enough money and decent poll results to call an election. At that point, I imagine so much damage will be done, there will be no point in acquiescing to the LPC's desire to bring down the Harper government with a confidence vote.
In the meantime, the big winner yet again is Harper. How sad is that?
And the will losers will be Joe and Mary main street who need an economic stimulus package and social programs that actually are geared to main street and not Bay street.
Only those with safe and secure well-paying jobs and incomes can play "political chess." Iggy falls into that camp of what I call the "worried well."
Well, I do not believe there is any coalition right now -- it was created because of the need for government action on the economy, but it is not a government-in-waiting anymore.
The coalition could be created again, if the Harper budget is poor (and I expect it will be) so the Harper government could fall at the end of January. But I think in that case it is just as likely - perhaps even more likely - that Jean would take the safe route again and call for another election rather than giving the coalition the chance to form a government.
The Ignatieff strategy outlined here is emblematic of the kind of cynical pragmatism combined with elitism that makes them so distasteful to many voters.
From whom do they imagine they’ll raise the money to repair their finances? The people who watched the executive crown another leader with no input from the larger party membership?
The broader process advocated by Rae might give him an advantage, but it’s the one thing they could do that might convince Canadians that they got the message of the past two elections. Or, they could delude themselves that it was all just about Dion…
The Ignatieff strategy outlined here is emblematic of the kind of cynical pragmatism combined with elitism that makes them so distasteful to many voters.
From whom do they imagine they’ll raise the money to repair their finances? The people who watched the executive crown another leader with no input from the larger party membership?
The broader process advocated by Rae might give him an advantage, but it’s the one thing they could do that might convince Canadians that they got the message of the past two elections. Or, they could delude themselves that it was all just about Dion…
Sorry about the double-post. I only clicked once, but it posted twice.
Well it was a point that bore repeating Ann-Marie.
It was worth repeating Anne-Marie. Jan, I like your phrase the "worried well" to describe the Iggies of this world.
Jim your latest entry and the comments have been very stimulating and remarkably positive considering the ever-changing events in Ottawa. This is a great time to witness history. It's a wonderful opportunity for students in high school and university to drop the textbooks and read the headlines. The best part is there won't be any exam :-)
For me, listening to Mr. Ignatieff yesterday on CBC Radio, I felt like I was being scolded by the teacher for talking about a coalition out-of-turn. How can any reasonable Canadian support a guy who supported the illegal war in Iraq? This is not a time for someone like him to cease power, like Brutus, based on a technicality. But it appears as if that's exactly what's going to happen. The notion of a coalition is dead, because it was Dion's idea, not Ignatieff's. Yet the "new" Liberal leader will come off as Henry V and try to rally the troops. Don't believe it!
LeonT
This quote is brilliant:
"The Ignatieff strategy outlined here is emblematic of the kind of cynical pragmatism combined with elitism that makes them [the LPC] so distasteful to many voters."
Prof. James:
The coalition is dead. Iggy wouldn't want it any other way. He wants to let Harper sweat out the recession and blame him if things don't pan out.
It may be all for the best. Is Jack Layton that hungry for power that he wants to cohabit with Michael Ignatieff?
It's time for the NDPers to ask themselves if they approve of a leader who would cohabit with the likes of Michael Ignatieff or Bob Rae for that matter? Rae is not as sleezy but he favours the Mission in Afghanistan and the occupation of Iraq. And he's no Keynesian.
Well... thanks again.
I have never had a good feeling about Iggy and you just gave the word I was looking for..... slippery.
I never felt great about Layton either until someone said,its because he comes off as a used car salesman.
I trusted Stephan pretty much except there was that incident with David Orchard and the appointment of an NDP as the Liberal rep.Goodale influenced.
This Liberal mishmash is not going to win votes.
Just form one party of the Green,Red,Orange people and call it the Browns.Or.... forget the parties and get all the good people to run as independants.
I support the coalition but this is exactly what I have always been afraid of. It is also what I have always warned progressive switch voters about. No party is perfect but on most issues most of the time I side with the NDP and if that is true for you than you may want to decide that your support shouldn't go to a party that regularly shits on their progressive wing.
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