Changing the take of the nation’s mulish pundits on the Liberal leadership contest is a time-consuming process. This slow witted beast---it is one beast inhabiting many bodies---forgets nothing and learns little. The sages decided long ago that there were three serious candidates in this race: Michael Ignatieff, Bob Rae, and Stephane Dion. Gerard Kennedy---possibly because he looks so much younger than most of the nation’s aging pundits (I’m 64 and am allowed to say this)---was written off as a promising youth, at best a “king-maker”, whose real shot at the job would be next time.
Facts are inconvenient, but they’re worth mentioning. The latest update of the delegate totals from Super Weekend, with 458 of 471 meetings reporting, put Kennedy solidly in third place with 817 delegates to Dion’s 770 delegates. Given two things---Dion’s far from consensual approach to fellow candidates at the recent leadership debate in Toronto, and the fact that Kennedy can likely pick up more second ballot support than Dion from the delegates of the bottom four candidates---Kennedy will almost certainly be on the ballot after Dion expires.
What about Ignatieff and Rae?
Ignatieff has had a terrible week. On whether the Israeli attack on Qana was a war-crime, he has vacillated so absurdly that he looks more like a candidate for a position on a university senate than for the leadership of a political party. Today, in the Globe and Mail, he is trying to convince us (in a column by Lawrence Martin) that he really does not want to “live in an American imperial world.” But stay tuned, there could be an update next week. Ignatieff is a smart guy, he doesn’t have the set of smarts it takes to be a political leader, unless Hamlet’s old job as Prince of Denmark comes open.
Liberals are fast figuring out that Ignatieff is not the man to lead them back to office. With only 29 per cent of the delegates so far, and with little potential for growth after the first ballot, his campaign is mired. He will likely not win.
Bob Rae has a very good shot. Despite the problem with some of his B.C. delegates, he has been looking ever more prime ministerial. Polls show him running well in a contest against Stephen Harper, whose fortunes appear dire. Being relentlessly right-wing may have spared him the label of “Mr. Dithers” but it is quickly convincing Canadians that they don’t want him.
Rae can go on to victory on the strength of delegates joining him after their candidates drop. But can Rae get to the last ballot, where I believe he would beat Ignatieff?
That depends on Kennedy and it is becoming the crucial calculation on which the whole thing depends. Kennedy’s message about party renewal and a new way of doing politics is getting through---not to the pundits, but to the delegates, and especially to younger delegates. If he can convince the supporters of Dryden, Volpe, (less likely Brison), and Hall Findlay to join him and can knock off Dion, his moment is at hand. A strong campaign between now and the convention can convince the Dion supporters that they ought to throw their support behind this candidate who has done so well in English Canada.
If he makes it to the last ballot, Kennedy will beat Ignatieff.
One piece of advice for Kennedy: He should cut his hair to make it look more like Don Newman’s. That’ll help the media mules to see him in a new light.
Facts are inconvenient, but they’re worth mentioning. The latest update of the delegate totals from Super Weekend, with 458 of 471 meetings reporting, put Kennedy solidly in third place with 817 delegates to Dion’s 770 delegates. Given two things---Dion’s far from consensual approach to fellow candidates at the recent leadership debate in Toronto, and the fact that Kennedy can likely pick up more second ballot support than Dion from the delegates of the bottom four candidates---Kennedy will almost certainly be on the ballot after Dion expires.
What about Ignatieff and Rae?
Ignatieff has had a terrible week. On whether the Israeli attack on Qana was a war-crime, he has vacillated so absurdly that he looks more like a candidate for a position on a university senate than for the leadership of a political party. Today, in the Globe and Mail, he is trying to convince us (in a column by Lawrence Martin) that he really does not want to “live in an American imperial world.” But stay tuned, there could be an update next week. Ignatieff is a smart guy, he doesn’t have the set of smarts it takes to be a political leader, unless Hamlet’s old job as Prince of Denmark comes open.
Liberals are fast figuring out that Ignatieff is not the man to lead them back to office. With only 29 per cent of the delegates so far, and with little potential for growth after the first ballot, his campaign is mired. He will likely not win.
Bob Rae has a very good shot. Despite the problem with some of his B.C. delegates, he has been looking ever more prime ministerial. Polls show him running well in a contest against Stephen Harper, whose fortunes appear dire. Being relentlessly right-wing may have spared him the label of “Mr. Dithers” but it is quickly convincing Canadians that they don’t want him.
Rae can go on to victory on the strength of delegates joining him after their candidates drop. But can Rae get to the last ballot, where I believe he would beat Ignatieff?
That depends on Kennedy and it is becoming the crucial calculation on which the whole thing depends. Kennedy’s message about party renewal and a new way of doing politics is getting through---not to the pundits, but to the delegates, and especially to younger delegates. If he can convince the supporters of Dryden, Volpe, (less likely Brison), and Hall Findlay to join him and can knock off Dion, his moment is at hand. A strong campaign between now and the convention can convince the Dion supporters that they ought to throw their support behind this candidate who has done so well in English Canada.
If he makes it to the last ballot, Kennedy will beat Ignatieff.
One piece of advice for Kennedy: He should cut his hair to make it look more like Don Newman’s. That’ll help the media mules to see him in a new light.
7 comments:
Would Bob Rae win in a final ballot race against Ignatieff: of course! Would Bob Rae win an election against Harper, with Ontario turning its back on him: no.... and I agree about the hair cut idea.
What about Martha? According to this blogger she still has a chance too.
i totally agree about the hair cut, Kennedy does need dion to win this though, im stuck about second ballot though, dion or bob. not sure.
I'm all about the absurdity of politics. That being said: Garth Turner for Liberal Leadership!
I agree that Kennedy has been invisible in Quebec. He is working hard on his French. It's not unknown for Quebecers to take a look at a politician only after he or she has achieved success in English Canada.
James, I think Stephane Dion is going to win this thing, and I say that as someone who doesn't support Dion in the leadership race. Kennedy doesn't really speak French, and what has sent the chill into his campaign since the Liberal Superweekend is the fact he only won 1% of the delegates in Quebec. I think Dion will come to surprise us all, and I think it will be Dion and Ignatieff on the final ballot.
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