Delegate selection on Liberal Super-Weekend confirmed that Michael Ignatieff will have a strong lead going into the December convention. In the range of thirty per cent of delegate support, and likely a few percentage points more than that when ex officio delegates are included in the mix, he nonetheless remains stoppable. He is no more strongly placed to become the winner than Brian Mulroney was in the 1976 Conservative leadership contest, when the little known Joe Clark emerged to defeat him. The list of front runners who didn’t make it has been a long one over the years in both federal and provincial leadership contests.
Much of the Liberal Party establishment has toiled mightily to ensure victory for Ignatieff, but they have come up short. Given the immense media coverage he has received, it is surprising that he is not closer to wrapping up this race. Ignatieff remains a divisive, polarizing figure in the Liberal Party and the country. He is best known as the champion of military intervention in zones of conflict. He supported the Bush administration’s invasion of Iraq in 2003 (and has never retracted his view that the mission was a good idea, though badly handled) and he voted with Stephen Harper to extend Canada’s mission in Afghanistan. His enthusiasm for the American Empire puts him at odds with the political culture of most Liberals and most Canadians. He is a Tony Blair in the making.
Bob Rae who came second on Super-Weekend, with a shade under twenty per cent of the vote, has emerged as one possible candidate around whom a stop-Ignatieff movement could coalesce. Rae has run a strong campaign, has been the smoothest of the performers, and has gone a long way to overcoming the negatives he faced at the beginning of the campaign. That he still has a considerable distance to go is revealed in his relatively poor showing in Ontario, where he managed only seventeen per cent of the vote, following Ignatieff with nearly twenty-eight per cent and Gerard Kennedy with nearly twenty-seven per cent. Doing less well in his own bailiwick than he did nationally is a worrying sign. In a diverse country like Canada, going into a federal election with the strong backing of your own region is seen as a crucial political attribute. And when that region is Ontario, the sine qua non for federal Liberals, Rae’s weakness stands out.
Stepane Dion, who will likely end up in fourth place when the rest of the races, including those with mail-in ballots are toted up, remains a serious contender. His strong showing in Quebec and his association with the increasingly important environmental issue, mean that he will receive a serious hearing over the next two months. His problems---a didactic, non-charismatic manner, and his authorship of the Clarity Act (highly divisive in Quebec) make him a tough sell.
Which leaves Gerard Kennedy, who turned in the performance on Super-Weekend that most surprised the media. With over sixteen and a half per cent of the vote, he will almost certainly hold on to third place. Kennedy’s very strong showing in his home province of Ontario and in Alberta (he came first with nearly twenty-eight per cent of the vote), the province where he worked for years creating a food bank, revealed his potential. Here’s a guy who did very well where he was best known and had a record to judge.
The media ought not to be so surprised by Kennedy’s strong showing. Where the hell have they been? With the exception of a perceptive piece in the Globe and Mail by Michael Posner, they have done a shoddy job covering the Kennedy candidacy. For months, columnists and television analysts, have talked of the Big Three candidates, Ignatieff, Rae, and Dion. Kennedy, whose under-the-radar campaign, with its strong cohort of youthful organizers, has been repeatedly under-estimated. The national media has egg on its face.
The time has come for the punditry to take a fresh look at Kennedy. He’s the right age, has turned in a stellar performance as Ontario’s education minister, and has plenty of charismatic firepower. His strong showing on Super-Weekend did not come out of thin air.
Kennedy’s weakness in Quebec is not the consequence of an unwillingness to reach out to that province as he now must do. It is the result of having virtually no organization there. When you factor in his shut out in Quebec in looking at his national numbers, Kennedy is right alongside Ignatieff as the choice of Liberals in English Canada.
Unlike Ignatieff, who divides Liberals, Kennedy represents the outlook with which Liberals are most comfortable. He is a progressive who can assemble the coalition of voters on the centre-left that alone can challenge Harper in the next election.
It’s time to stop underestimating his candidacy.
Much of the Liberal Party establishment has toiled mightily to ensure victory for Ignatieff, but they have come up short. Given the immense media coverage he has received, it is surprising that he is not closer to wrapping up this race. Ignatieff remains a divisive, polarizing figure in the Liberal Party and the country. He is best known as the champion of military intervention in zones of conflict. He supported the Bush administration’s invasion of Iraq in 2003 (and has never retracted his view that the mission was a good idea, though badly handled) and he voted with Stephen Harper to extend Canada’s mission in Afghanistan. His enthusiasm for the American Empire puts him at odds with the political culture of most Liberals and most Canadians. He is a Tony Blair in the making.
Bob Rae who came second on Super-Weekend, with a shade under twenty per cent of the vote, has emerged as one possible candidate around whom a stop-Ignatieff movement could coalesce. Rae has run a strong campaign, has been the smoothest of the performers, and has gone a long way to overcoming the negatives he faced at the beginning of the campaign. That he still has a considerable distance to go is revealed in his relatively poor showing in Ontario, where he managed only seventeen per cent of the vote, following Ignatieff with nearly twenty-eight per cent and Gerard Kennedy with nearly twenty-seven per cent. Doing less well in his own bailiwick than he did nationally is a worrying sign. In a diverse country like Canada, going into a federal election with the strong backing of your own region is seen as a crucial political attribute. And when that region is Ontario, the sine qua non for federal Liberals, Rae’s weakness stands out.
Stepane Dion, who will likely end up in fourth place when the rest of the races, including those with mail-in ballots are toted up, remains a serious contender. His strong showing in Quebec and his association with the increasingly important environmental issue, mean that he will receive a serious hearing over the next two months. His problems---a didactic, non-charismatic manner, and his authorship of the Clarity Act (highly divisive in Quebec) make him a tough sell.
Which leaves Gerard Kennedy, who turned in the performance on Super-Weekend that most surprised the media. With over sixteen and a half per cent of the vote, he will almost certainly hold on to third place. Kennedy’s very strong showing in his home province of Ontario and in Alberta (he came first with nearly twenty-eight per cent of the vote), the province where he worked for years creating a food bank, revealed his potential. Here’s a guy who did very well where he was best known and had a record to judge.
The media ought not to be so surprised by Kennedy’s strong showing. Where the hell have they been? With the exception of a perceptive piece in the Globe and Mail by Michael Posner, they have done a shoddy job covering the Kennedy candidacy. For months, columnists and television analysts, have talked of the Big Three candidates, Ignatieff, Rae, and Dion. Kennedy, whose under-the-radar campaign, with its strong cohort of youthful organizers, has been repeatedly under-estimated. The national media has egg on its face.
The time has come for the punditry to take a fresh look at Kennedy. He’s the right age, has turned in a stellar performance as Ontario’s education minister, and has plenty of charismatic firepower. His strong showing on Super-Weekend did not come out of thin air.
Kennedy’s weakness in Quebec is not the consequence of an unwillingness to reach out to that province as he now must do. It is the result of having virtually no organization there. When you factor in his shut out in Quebec in looking at his national numbers, Kennedy is right alongside Ignatieff as the choice of Liberals in English Canada.
Unlike Ignatieff, who divides Liberals, Kennedy represents the outlook with which Liberals are most comfortable. He is a progressive who can assemble the coalition of voters on the centre-left that alone can challenge Harper in the next election.
It’s time to stop underestimating his candidacy.
6 comments:
I don't disagree with your assessement of the reasons for his shut-out in Quebec (though his language skills don't help either - kudos to him for his progress though!) but I think you underestimate the effect of "shutout in Quebec".
Doing well in Ontario is important, of course. Doing well in Alberta is, imho, a pipe dream. Gaining ground in Quebec (or at least holding ground) is ESSENTIAL. I just don't think a fifth place finish (behind VOLPE!) with only 1.7% of the delegates can be so easily rationalized for the members at large. Could he do MUCH better in an election in Quebec than in the delegate selection? Of course. The question though, is could he do better than Ignatieff, Rae, or Dion? One could perhaps argue that the answer is yes, but one's argument would have to begin with the words "All evidence to the contrary..."
There are rational reasons for Kennedy's poor showing in Quebec, and it does indeed understate the support he would have in the province as Liberal leader. The problem is, he has to BECOME Liberal leader first. And I just don't see how he gets past his results in Quebec. Not in the Liberal Party. Not in 2006. Not if the Liberals want to govern before the end of the decade. And I suspect most of them do.
This is a very insightful, and I think true, analysis of the weekend's results. What haves the Globe and Mail and the CBC been thinking these last several months. It's enough to make those more conspiracy theory-prone than myself to conclude that Kennedy is not what the powers that be want at the moment. But my great fear, my very real fear, is that for all his talk, and his confrontations with Ignatieff, at the crucial moment, Bob Rae will throw his support to Ignatieff, much to the dismay of the centre left in this country, and also much to the detriment of the Liberal Party. It's a frightening prospect.
I like your assessment overall. There are a few specifics I do disagree with however.
1)The shutout in Quebec is one of the biggest stories from this weekend. It will not easily be shaken by Kennedy.
2)Kennedy lives in Quebec and has now for over 2 months. He does has organization there. However, the media have been very much against him there and his french language skills are poor.
3) Dion's performance in Quebec shows that he is very well liked there. Coming 2nd with 29% of the votes is clearly a major victory and shows that concerns about his 'divisiveness' are ill founded.
My biggest worry right now is that the media will start trying to shut out Dion and make this seem as though it were a two horse race. Clearly that is what the Tories were aiming for when they 'leaked' a memo to the Globe and Mail saying that they feared Ignatieff and wanted Rae as liberal leader. Ignatieff also seems to be wanting this as he declined a live 3 way debate between himself, Dion and Rae but later went on air for a debate between just himself and Rae.
Anyone else perplexed by Canada's most leftist province's recent penchant for right winged candidates like Harper and Ignatieff?
Support for Canada's involvment in Afghanistan is the lowest in the province of Quebec, and yet the Liberal MP who voted to give Harper a blank cheque on the issue wins a solid majority in la belle province.
You will find no greater opposition to Anglo-American wars than in Quebec, yet the delegates fell in line with one of its most prominent cheerleaders over one of its own.
What gives?!
Time and again, Quebec has shown she won't hestitate selling out a mile of her ideals for an inch of favour on the issue of Quebec sovereignty.
Harper offered Quebec a greater voice on the international stage, and Quebec bestowed upon Canadians an ultra conservative right winged administration that they themselves would not touch with a ten foot pole for their own provincial affairs.
Ignatieff offers Quebec a nation within a nation status enshrined in the constitution, and he took a province that is a polar opposite to almost everything he's about and written.
If it were up to me, I'd give Quebec outright independence to preserve for the rest of Canada a choice between Harper's neo-conservative foreign agenda and one that's not.
I think it will be hard for Kennedy to, despite his second place finish in the rest of Canada, to build on that success.
Liberals tend to value the notion of a bilingual, bicultural nation.
Kennedy's failure in Quebec undermines that notion outside of Quebec, within the party.
Regardless of the reason, it is a real failure.
And as such, it will hamper his potential growth from Liberal delegates in the rest of Canada.
No one expected Kennedy to sweep Quebec or even finish in the top three.
However, finishing behind the armies of the dead for Volpe and the undeclared elected is nothing short of disaster.
And nothing Kennedy's team can do between now and December will change that.
Well said! During the whole campaign Kennedy was underestimated and often not included among the frontrunners, he has strong support among the youth and been running an energetic campaign. I think he could just pull it off.
Also, Kennedy has achieved a functioning level of billingualism.
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